MMA Predictions: UFC 92

Along with winning money at the online poker tables, I also enjoy gambling on MMA matches. I have been an avid MMA fan for a long, long time (yeah, UFC existed before 2006 believe it or not, and there was this little thing called Pride FC where a lot of great fights occured). More often than not, I win, so I thought I would share my predictions here with you losers:

Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans (for UFC light heavyweight title)

In a match nobody would have predicted a year ago (seriously, did you think Rashad would have killed Chuck Liddell like that? And did you think Forrest would be champion so soon?), we finally get to find out who is the Ultimate Ultimate Fighter. Yeah, the winners of Seasons 1 & 2 are fighting for the LHW title in 2008. Believe it.

Going into the fight, Rashad has a much better wrestling background (although Forrest is way bigger, he’ll weight about 230 lbs when the fight takes place, and Rashad came in light at 203, so he’ll probably be not much bigger than 205-210 lbs). His strikes also have proven power, with devastating KO’s over Chuck Liddell and Sean Salmon. However when he doesn’t land these wild strikes, he hasn’t shown that he is able to finish guys from there (half of his wins are decisions).

Forrest has a great chin though, and is very tenacious – he has proven from the start that he can withstand a lot of damage, and take late decisions due to his ability to do so (just ask Rampage, who was hurting in round 5 of a very close fight, and ended up losing the split decision and the title).

With superior power, proven ground and pound, and riding a huge winning streak, you just have to take Rashad in this one.

My Prediction: Rashad Evans by Ground & Pound

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir (for interim UFC heavyweight title)

With all due respect to Frank Mir, who cut the promo of his life on The Ultimate Fighter Finale, I’m sorry but he doesn’t stand a chance here. Normally, Nogeuira outclasses him in every way – striking, grappling, endurance, chin. He is stronger, he is quicker, he has WAY more experience as a top level fighter, he just can’t be stopped. Not even by a truck running him over. Nog has stated that Mir will be dangerous for about 2 minutes. If he can survive that, he feels he has the match in the bag.

That is, normally. Nogueira didn’t look too good at the weigh-ins, and in fact seems to be getting progressively heavier with each fight. That seems to be a trend with the heavyweights in a post-Brock Lesnar world. Guys try to pack on a lot of pounds, but end up beight slower and with less endurance.

Still, Nog is going to take this one, unless he performs as bad as his gut looked at the weigh-ins.

My Prediction: Nogueira by Decision

Wanderlei Silva vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson

These two have a tremendous feud going that dates back to 2003. We’ve all seen how fighters hype a fight by taunting each other, making it look like they have some beef, only to see them hug and kiss after one kills the other. That is not what’s going on here. These guys hate each other; you can barely have them in the same room at the same time (there was in fact another pull-apart during weigh-ins last night).

This fight is a tough one to call, however. Wanderlei hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire lately (he’s 1-3 in his last 4 fights, and received some devastating knockouts from Dan Henderson and Cro Cop during that time). 

There is no question who the new rule set, fighting environment, and drug testing rules have affected more. The problem is, there are serious questions regarding Quinton’s mental state. After being murdered by Silva twice, he just wasn’t the same for a while – instead of coming to the ring in a huge dog chain, howling at his opponents, he walked in somberly, carrying a bible at his side. His split decisions over Dong Sik Yun and Ninja weren’t exactly inspirational. Rampage has looked great lately in his UFC run however, despite the devastating loss to Forrest Griffin. 

And we all know what happened after the Forrest fight – he literally went on a rampage, was involved in a police chase and allegedly crashed into a pregnant woman, killing her unborn child. He then had a falling out with his boxing trainer and manager Juanito Ibarra, who Rampage credited with turning his career around for him.

Rampage didn’t look good at all backstage at the Spike Video Game Awards earlier this week; he was complaining of headaches, and not being able to sleep. However, he looked to be back to his normal self the next day, so I feel confident that he is back, possible better than ever.

My Prediction: Rampage by KO