Counting Cards in Poker to Determine Odds and Outs

Most losers I know suck at math. Not that poor math automatically makes you a loser (there are plenty of other things that make you a loser), but it can definitely work to your advantage in poker. One way it can help is by doing quick math in your head to determine your outs, in comparison to the pot odds. Both those pages I link to offer detailed advice on each subject, so I’ll only be using the basics here. If you’re too lazy to read it all, tough luck. Have fun losing all your money, loser.

Counting Outs

If you can, you should always know what your outs are. Here’s an example:

Your opening hand is 6♥ 5♥

The flop comes down as: Q♥ 3♠ 7♥

In this case, your hand has almost no chance of winning, unless it improves. But if it does improve, you have a very good chance of winning. There are a number of ways it can improve:

• A♥ 2♥ 3♥ 4♥ 8♥ 9♥ 10♥ J♥ K♥ will all give you a flush.
• 4♣ 4♦ 4♥ 4♠ will all give you a straight.
• Since 4♥ gives you a straight flush, it shows up twice. Only count it once.

Go ahead, count those cards. In the current situation, you have 12 outs. In the next round, 12 cards can come that will improve your hand enough to make it a potentially winning hand.

The Rule of 4 & 2

A well-known mathematics based rule that many people base their strategies on is The Rule of 4 & 2.

Use the Rule of 4 after the flop. To determine the rule of 4, take your outs, and multiply them by 4. This will give you a percentage of chance to make your hand in the game. In this example:

12 x 4 = 48

You have a 48% chance to make your hand by the river, according to the rule of 4.

After the turn card, you should then use the rule of 2. Let’s go back to our example hand:

Opening hand: 6♥ 5♥

After Turn: Q♥ 3♠ 7♥ 8♣

Looking at our outs again:

• A♥ 2♥ 3♥ 4♥ 8♥ 9♥ 10♥ J♥ K♥ will still give you a flush.
• 4♣ 4♦ 4♥ 4♠ will still give you a straight.
• And now 9♣ 9♦ 9♥ 9♠ will give you a straight as well.

You now have 15 outs after the turn. Multiply that by 2:

15 x 2 = 30

The Rule of 2 determines that you have a 30% chance of catching the winning card on the river.

Calculating Pot Odds

I have posted an extremely thorough discussion of pot odds already, so be sure to read up on that.

Luckily the math is pretty simple here, so even an idiot like you can figure it out. Let’s use a really easy example:

• The pot has $300 in it
• Your opponent bets $100, bringing the pot total to $400
• So to win $400, you will have to bet $100
• Your pot odds are 400:100, or 4:1.
• If you do call, your $100 represents 20% of the pot ($100 of the now $500 pot)

Putting it all Together

So using the rules of 4 and 2 above, you can then compare it to your pot odds. This will give you a rough idea on your odds of winning. In our scenario, we have a 30% of winning at the river, and are being asked to call 20% of the pot. Since your 30% chance outweighs the pot odds, then you should most definitely make that call! Obviously that was a very good scenario, so let’s put something else together:

• Let’s say you have 5 outs at the flop
• Rule of 4 means 5 x 4 = 20%. So you have a 20% chance of making a winning hand by the river.
• After the bet, there is $200 in the pot. You’re being asked to call $100. 2 to 1 pot odds.
• Therefore, you need a 1:3 or 33% chance to win to justify calling that bet.
• Since The Rule of 4 states you only have a 20% chance of winning, you should fold this time.

This should be used as a basic guide to determine if you should call or fold, and mathematically speaking you should come out on top in the end. However, since you are playing with other people (most of them being idiots) you shouldn’t adhere to this ruleset 100%. It is a guideline though, and has helped many players start out on the right track. You just have to be quick with those math skills. Eventually, you’ll know your outs just by glancing at the draws.