UFC 97 Retrospective

Well the show is over, so let’s take a look at how my picks for UFC 97 did. With a lot of fights going to decision, a horrid, wretched main event, and the biggest star in the history of MMA losing in glorious fashion in what is likely to be his last fight ever.I’m not going to criticize the show here, since that’s not what this site is about. There’s plenty of good MMA sites out there for that. Okay, just one. The rest pretty much suck. I do all my betting at Bodog Sports, where they give you a great deposit bonus that is easy to win back, and I can use my winnings to earn even more money over at the poker room ;)

Denis Kang (-325) vs Xavier Foupa-Pokam (+250)
My Pick: Kang  | Winner: Kang

Kang got the win, but was unimpressive in getting a decision over a guy with no ground game. He was set up to destroy the guy on the ground, but was unable to do so. Sad.

Cheick Kongo (-350) vs Antoni Hardonk (+275)
My Pick: Hardonk (betting on the upset) | Winner: Kongo

The upset didn’t happen this time, as Kongo did take Hardonk to the ground after all, and broke his nose.

Sam Stout (-140) vs Matt Wiman (+110)
My Pick: Stout | Winner: Stout

This went about how I expected, but Handsome Matt was a bit more impressive than I expected.

Mark Bocek (-285) vs David Bielkheden (+225)
My Pick: Bocek | Winner: Bocek

Bocek destroyed him, just as I said he would.

David Loiseau (-130) vs Ed Herman (Even)
My Pick: Herman | Winner: Herman

Apparently Loiseau looked horrible in this fight, and will probably never fight in the UFC again after this undercard tryout.

Nate Quarry (-120) vs Jason MacDonald (-110)
My Pick: MacDonald from a coin-toss | Winner: Quarry

MacDonald stormed into the UFC, but has been unimpressive lately, getting destroyed by Quarry on the ground. Sad, he was fun to watch.

Luiz Cane (-340) vs Steve Cantwell (+260)
My Pick: Cane | Winner: Cane

I didn’t expect this to go the distance, so props to Cantwell for hanging in there. Cantwell looked good for a while there, but clearly the WEC guys have to improve to hang in the UFC.

Krzysztof Soszynski (-155) vs Brian Stann (+125)
My Pick: Soszynski | Winner: Soszynski

This went pretty much exactly as I expected, kimura and all.

Chuck Liddell (-200) vs Mauricio Rua (+160)
My Pick: Liddell | Winner: Rua

As I mentioned before, there were no questions about Chuck – he came into this fight looking like he was in the best physical condition of his life, but he just can’t hang with the top contenders any more. Shogun on the other hand, I wasn’t sure if we would see the fat pig with a bum knee, or, well, a top contender in the weight class. Now we know that Shogun’s knee is working again, so he knocked Chuck out.

Anderson Silva (-675) vs Thales Leites (+475)
My Pick: Silva | Winner: Silva

Yeah…

So overall I went 7-for-10, with my underdog pick not working out this time.

Now let’s put this horrible event behind us, and play some poker while looking forward to the next MMA event!

The Poker Jerk’s UFC 97 Predictions

Hey losers, it’s been a while since I posted some MMA predictions. I’ve been a huge MMA fan for years, and enjoy betting on fights even though I am not into betting on other sports. If you want to win/lose with me, check out my predictions. I like to bet at Bodog – they are US friendly, and give you $50 in cash when you make your first deposit.

Denis Kang (-325) vs Xavier Foupa-Pokam (+250)

Luckily I don’t have to try to pronounce his name. And it won’t matter anyway, because he’s going to get destroyed by Kang. I have to say, it’s crazy seeing Kang fight in a dark match in his own country, after being pegged as a potential champion in his weight class. Hopefully this will give him the opportunity to get the jitters out of his system so he can get back to putting on dominating performances on the road to being a champion. After Anderson Silva retires, of course.

Cheick Kongo (-350) vs Antoni Hardonk (+275)

This is one of my upset picks of the show, where I expect the underdog to win. I expect a K-1 style fight here; in other words, expect it to be a kickboxing match between two decent heavyweight kickboxers. One would expect Kongo to excel in this type of match, but Hardonk can really take a punch, and has the ability to keep the distance with superior low kicks. If Kongo takes it to the ground, it would be a surprize, but it would also be in his favour. But like I said, Kongo will want to Knock him Out, so will end up getting TKO’d himself.

My prediction: Antoni Hardonk by TKO in Round 3

Sam Stout (-140) vs Matt Wiman (+110)

This is going to be another great fight, and again it’s technically an undercard match. These guys are going to fucking BANG. Sam Stout is one of Canada’s better strikers, but hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in UFC. Matt Wiman is a decent well-rounded fighter who isn’t afraid to stand up with anyone. This one is a toss-up and with these odds, I am going to stay away. If Wiman was a bigger underdog, he would be a great bet.

My prediction: Sam Stout by KO in Round 3

Mark Bocek (-285) vs David Bielkheden (+225)

This could be a fun grappling match, but Bocek is better in every way. I wouldn’t risk taking the underdog here.

My Prediction: Mark Bocek by Submission in Round 1

David Loiseau (-130) vs Ed Herman (Even)

Loiseau is back in the UFC! In Canada! If you just started watching UFC, you missed out on Loiseau’s sick elbows. There should be some videos on Youtube, if you are ever curious what it looks like to see a man’s skull while he is living.

Quite an even fight, but I fully expect Herman to be able to get Loiseau to the ground and submit him. As long as he doesn’t get his head split open first.

My prediction: Ed Herman by Submission in Round 2

Nate Quarry (-120) vs Jason MacDonald (-110)

Besides the main events, this is the fight I am looking forward to most. It is going to be a battle, and is my prediction for Fight of the Night. And weirdly, it’s another dark match starring a Canadian (one of the better Canadians at that). Unfortunately it’s just too close to call, so it’s tough to pick a winner. I still have to go with MacDonald though, on a coin flip.

My prediction: Jason MacDonald by Submission in Round 3

Luiz Cane (-340) vs Steve Cantwell (+260)

This has a chance of being a show stealer, with Cane’s aggressive style. He is obviously the huge favourite to win, and I think he will. However, Cantwell has the technical ability to hold off more aggressive fighters and catch them. Other books are putting Cantwell at +180 or so, so at +260 it definitely makes him an interesting underdog pick. Not enough to convince me though.

My prediction: Luiz Cane by KO in Round 3

Krzysztof Soszynski (-155) vs Brian Stann (+125)

Brian Stann has a good story behind him, being a war hero in Iraq and all. But he’s not quite at Soszynski’s level overall. He does have good power in his punches, so there is always the chance that he’ll catch Soszynski. But I expect Soszynski’s veteran experience to allow him to avoid the brawling style and pull through with a win here.

My prediction: Krzysztof Soszynski by Submission in Round 2

Chuck Liddell (-200) vs Mauricio Rua (+160)

One of the biggest disappointments to come over from the Pride FC collapse (the biggest of course being Cro Cop), Shogun has gone from being the top ranked 205 lbs fighter in the world to being an underdog against an aging Chuck Liddell after just two fights. Both fighters need this win bad, and Dana White has even suggested that his very close friend will retire if he loses this fight. I’m not sure if he spoke to Chuck about this though – Chuck will fight until he literally can’t fight anymore, be it in UFC or whereever.

Rua has managed to build decent hype for all his fights, but I am not at all convinced. I think that his bum knee has basically ruined his carreer – even before the loss to Griffin, Shogun looked quite sluggish against Nakamura in 2006. Chuck on the other hand didn’t look good at all against Rashad Evans or Rampage, but then those two are quite a bit better than Liddell and Rua. However, he is declining steadily in pretty much every way, while Shogun has dropped off a cliff. With Chuck, we know what to expect – the guy who has trouble handling the best Light Heavyweights in the game, but can still pull out a great win (like he did against Wanderlei). With Shogun, we can’t be 100% sure what we’re going to get. I personally don’t expect to see the 2005-era dominating explosive Shogun in the drug testing environment of the LVAC. Instead, we’ll probably get the fat pig with a bum knee.

My prediction: Chuck Liddell by KO in Round 3

Anderson Silva (-675) vs Thales Leites (+475)

With all due respect to Leites, he is going to get killed. Anderson Silva was not happy with his last performance – he wanted to dance around, toying with Patrick Cote like a cat plays with its prey before eating it. Unfortunately, Cote’s knee blew out before he could finish him, and the end result was unsatisfactory. He’s pissed about that, and will want to make a statement that he is still the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world.

My prediction: Anderson Silva by Murder in Round 1

And that’s it for now! I am putting most of my money on Hardonk.

MMA Predictions: UFC 92

Along with winning money at the online poker tables, I also enjoy gambling on MMA matches. I have been an avid MMA fan for a long, long time (yeah, UFC existed before 2006 believe it or not, and there was this little thing called Pride FC where a lot of great fights occured). More often than not, I win, so I thought I would share my predictions here with you losers:

Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans (for UFC light heavyweight title)

In a match nobody would have predicted a year ago (seriously, did you think Rashad would have killed Chuck Liddell like that? And did you think Forrest would be champion so soon?), we finally get to find out who is the Ultimate Ultimate Fighter. Yeah, the winners of Seasons 1 & 2 are fighting for the LHW title in 2008. Believe it.

Going into the fight, Rashad has a much better wrestling background (although Forrest is way bigger, he’ll weight about 230 lbs when the fight takes place, and Rashad came in light at 203, so he’ll probably be not much bigger than 205-210 lbs). His strikes also have proven power, with devastating KO’s over Chuck Liddell and Sean Salmon. However when he doesn’t land these wild strikes, he hasn’t shown that he is able to finish guys from there (half of his wins are decisions).

Forrest has a great chin though, and is very tenacious – he has proven from the start that he can withstand a lot of damage, and take late decisions due to his ability to do so (just ask Rampage, who was hurting in round 5 of a very close fight, and ended up losing the split decision and the title).

With superior power, proven ground and pound, and riding a huge winning streak, you just have to take Rashad in this one.

My Prediction: Rashad Evans by Ground & Pound

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir (for interim UFC heavyweight title)

With all due respect to Frank Mir, who cut the promo of his life on The Ultimate Fighter Finale, I’m sorry but he doesn’t stand a chance here. Normally, Nogeuira outclasses him in every way – striking, grappling, endurance, chin. He is stronger, he is quicker, he has WAY more experience as a top level fighter, he just can’t be stopped. Not even by a truck running him over. Nog has stated that Mir will be dangerous for about 2 minutes. If he can survive that, he feels he has the match in the bag.

That is, normally. Nogueira didn’t look too good at the weigh-ins, and in fact seems to be getting progressively heavier with each fight. That seems to be a trend with the heavyweights in a post-Brock Lesnar world. Guys try to pack on a lot of pounds, but end up beight slower and with less endurance.

Still, Nog is going to take this one, unless he performs as bad as his gut looked at the weigh-ins.

My Prediction: Nogueira by Decision

Wanderlei Silva vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson

These two have a tremendous feud going that dates back to 2003. We’ve all seen how fighters hype a fight by taunting each other, making it look like they have some beef, only to see them hug and kiss after one kills the other. That is not what’s going on here. These guys hate each other; you can barely have them in the same room at the same time (there was in fact another pull-apart during weigh-ins last night).

This fight is a tough one to call, however. Wanderlei hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire lately (he’s 1-3 in his last 4 fights, and received some devastating knockouts from Dan Henderson and Cro Cop during that time). 

There is no question who the new rule set, fighting environment, and drug testing rules have affected more. The problem is, there are serious questions regarding Quinton’s mental state. After being murdered by Silva twice, he just wasn’t the same for a while – instead of coming to the ring in a huge dog chain, howling at his opponents, he walked in somberly, carrying a bible at his side. His split decisions over Dong Sik Yun and Ninja weren’t exactly inspirational. Rampage has looked great lately in his UFC run however, despite the devastating loss to Forrest Griffin. 

And we all know what happened after the Forrest fight – he literally went on a rampage, was involved in a police chase and allegedly crashed into a pregnant woman, killing her unborn child. He then had a falling out with his boxing trainer and manager Juanito Ibarra, who Rampage credited with turning his career around for him.

Rampage didn’t look good at all backstage at the Spike Video Game Awards earlier this week; he was complaining of headaches, and not being able to sleep. However, he looked to be back to his normal self the next day, so I feel confident that he is back, possible better than ever.

My Prediction: Rampage by KO